What percent of new Solana coins survive a week? Whodl's running count
Most articles on memecoin survival quote one study, from one month, usually about graduation from a launchpad. This page is different in two ways: it measures coins people actually asked about, after they were already trading, and it updates itself as Whodl's scan history grows.
The headline figures
Among the 0 coins Whodl first saw at least seven days ago, measured from the market cap at the first scan:
| Outcome | Share of coins |
|---|---|
| At least doubled at their peak after the first scan | not enough data yet |
| Down 80% or more from the first scan at the latest check | not enough data yet |
Both can be true of the same coin: a 3x run followed by a 90% fall is the most common shape in the trenches. "Doubled at the peak" is an opportunity someone could have taken, not a return anyone did take.
What changed the odds
The same coins, split by what Whodl measured at the first scan. A group with few coins is noisy; the sample sizes are shown so you can weigh them.
| Split | Coins | Doubled | Down 80%+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same-block (bundled) supply 10% or more | 0 | not enough data yet | not enough data yet |
| Same-block supply under 5% | 0 | not enough data yet | not enough data yet |
| Dev had sold 25% or more of its position | 0 | not enough data yet | not enough data yet |
| Dev had sold under 5% | 0 | not enough data yet | not enough data yet |
| Paid for a DEX Screener listing | 0 | not enough data yet | not enough data yet |
| Did not pay | 0 | not enough data yet | not enough data yet |
| 30%+ of supply in fresh wallets | 0 | not enough data yet | |
| Under 10% in fresh wallets | 0 | not enough data yet |
Each split has its own guide: bundled supply, dev sold vs dev holds, paid listings and fresh wallets.
How to read these honestly
- The sample is coins someone cared enough to scan, so it is not the whole launchpad firehose, where survival is far lower.
- First-scan timing varies. Some coins were scanned minutes after launch, some after a run. Whodl's scan history on each coin page shows when.
- A split shows association, not cause. Bundled coins may die more because of the bundle, or because bundlers choose coins they intend to dump.
- Groups under about 30 coins should be read as early signal, not fact.
The weekly news recap publishes the same figures for each week's new coins, which is the fastest way to see whether the odds are shifting.
How this guide was made: written by Jack Shard with AI assistance, based on the measurements Whodl makes. Last reviewed Oct 19, 2026. Details on the about page.